Definition
What is lineup-aware NBA pricing?
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Definition
Lineup-aware pricing computes NBA fair prices conditional on the starting lineup (and in-game substitution patterns) rather than treating the team as a fixed unit. Rest schedule, injuries, and historical lineup performance feed into the win probability.
NBA teams without their stars play differently — sometimes dramatically so. A model that prices the spread + total conditional on the *announced* lineup at tip-off captures information the public line incorporates late. Add rest-schedule priors (back-to-back games, fourth game in five nights) and you have a base model that's competitive with sharp books on a meaningful number of games.
The inputs
- Starting lineup announced 30+ min before tip
- Rest schedule (days since last game, fourth in five, etc.)
- Injury priors (G-League call-ups, day-of inactive list)
- Historical lineup performance for the announced 5-man unit
Why the public line trails
Public NBA lines incorporate “team strength” but not always “this lineup vs that lineup on this rest schedule.” A lineup-aware model is a base; combined with situational priors, it produces fair prices that the public sometimes lags.