Definition
What is ball-by-ball cricket modeling?
Last updated
Definition
Ball-by-ball cricket modeling computes fair prices for in-play markets conditional on the current match state — overs bowled, wickets fallen, target if chasing, batsman in form. The model updates after every delivery, producing fresh probabilities for winner, runs-in-over, top-batter, and other markets.
T20 cricket markets move fast — the line should update after every ball, but public lines lag. A model that prices fairly conditional on current state catches the gap between fair and offered odds in the seconds before the book updates. Glitch Edge's cricket module ships state-conditional pricing for IPL + PSL, with explicit win probability per (overs remaining, wickets in hand, target).
The state space
For a T20 chase, the state is roughly: overs remaining × wickets in hand × runs needed × current run rate. A precomputed lookup over this state space gives a base win probability; in-play data (current batsman, recent overs) modifies it.
Why public lines lag
Most retail books update their cricket lines on a delay — sometimes 30 seconds, sometimes a full over. A state-aware model that prices fairly in real time finds the gaps in the lag. The opportunity window is short and the model has to be accurate, but the inefficiency is real.