Definition
What is Polymarket?
Last updated
Definition
Polymarket is a decentralized prediction market built on Polygon (Ethereum L2) where users trade outcome shares for real-world events at prices that reflect crowd-sourced probability estimates. Outcomes settle on-chain via UMA optimistic oracle.
Polymarket pricing differs from sportsbook pricing — there's no bookmaker, no vig in the traditional sense, just a market of buyers and sellers. Liquidity varies wildly by market: top-of-card events have decent depth, niche markets are thin. Some quant operators arb Polymarket against bookmaker prices; the geo-eligibility and KYC rules differ from sports betting books. Glitch Edge ships Polymarket beta in the Pro tier.
How Polymarket pricing differs
A share that pays $1 if X happens trades at price p where p roughly equals the market’s implied probability of X. No vig to strip — the price is the probability estimate. Liquidity provides the price; thin markets have wide spreads.
Glitch Edge’s Polymarket support
Pro tier beta. The cricket + NBA models can output a probability estimate; the platform compares against Polymarket’s price and places when the edge exceeds a threshold. Same paper-first methodology applies.